Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Kuraly 49.2% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 74.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 60.1%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Larkin
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Larkin
Kuraly
Last 6: Larkin 0-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
Larkin
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Larkin
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (773)
50.8% (370)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (146)
44.1% (127)
+3.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Larkin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (762).
Larkin shoots left. Kuraly is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kuraly
Home
51.9% (615)
52.8% (269)
Away
54.2% (524)
44.7% (228)
By Period
Larkin
Kuraly
P1
52.3%
53.2%
P2
53.2%
45.8%
P3
52.6%
47.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.9%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |