Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Kuraly 51.0% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 70.7%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 67.5%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 53.5%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Larkin
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Larkin
Kuraly
Last 6: Larkin 0-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
Larkin
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Larkin
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
52.6% (464)
-1.5%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
100.0% (1)
-40.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
46.5% (155)
+1.7%
On power play, Kuraly has a +40.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kuraly
Home
51.7% (686)
55.9% (322)
Away
53.0% (658)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Larkin
Kuraly
P1
52.5%
55.9%
P2
52.7%
46.7%
P3
51.4%
50.7%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |