Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Johnston 49.0% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 63.0%
Defensive zone
Johnston 62.9%
Neutral zone
Johnston 55.5%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Larkin
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
12
(23 meetings)
11
12
Larkin
Johnston
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
2
Larkin
Johnston
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
3
4
Larkin
Johnston
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
3
6
Larkin
Johnston
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
49.1% (2,232)
+2.5%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
52.5% (179)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
44.7% (237)
+5.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Larkin shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnston
Home
53.9% (6,277)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Larkin
Johnston
P1
52.7%
50.0%
P2
53.1%
48.1%
P3
52.0%
48.6%
OT
58.4%
51.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:26 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:46 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |