Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Gourde 46.0% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 85.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 71.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Larkin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Larkin
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Larkin
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
47.2% (687)
+3.9%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
45.0% (20)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
33.0% (88)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Larkin
Gourde
Home
51.7% (686)
44.4% (356)
Away
53.0% (658)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Larkin
Gourde
P1
52.5%
42.2%
P2
52.7%
50.0%
P3
51.4%
44.5%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |