Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 51.7% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 25-16 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 82.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 53.1%
Neutral zone
Strome 61.7%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Strome
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
25
(41 meetings)
16
25
Strome
Pavelski
Last 10: Strome 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
8
4
Strome
Pavelski
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
13
Strome
Pavelski
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
8
Strome
Pavelski
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (6,371)
53.6% (8,791)
-3.5%
Power Play
58.6% (1,532)
58.2% (2,122)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (68)
50.9% (1,138)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Strome is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,688).
Strome shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Strome
Pavelski
Home
51.1% (3,968)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
52.3% (4,003)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Strome
Pavelski
P1
50.5%
53.5%
P2
52.3%
55.2%
P3
52.3%
53.9%
OT
52.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.4%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
64.0%▲
56.5%
51.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:11 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 17:46 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 07:14 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 07:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2022 | 3 | 18:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2022 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 19:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 04:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |