Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Luostarinen wins 44.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 46.5% vs Tavares 56.8% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 60.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 79.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Luostarinen
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Luostarinen
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Luostarinen
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Luostarinen
2
0
Luostarinen
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (92)
57.7% (975)
-12.0%
Power Play
45.0% (20)
56.0% (250)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
52.2% (23)
-23.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Luostarinen is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Luostarinen shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Tavares
Home
44.4% (36)
57.4% (636)
Away
43.3% (90)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Luostarinen
Tavares
P1
38.9%
57.5%
P2
44.7%
56.9%
P3
45.1%
57.5%
OT
100.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
46.0%▲
44.5%
43.7%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |