Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +20.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Lindholm wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.3% vs Hayes 42.7% (+20.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 95.7%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 96.9%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 88.6%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 95.6%
95.6%
4.4%
Lindholm
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Lindholm
Hayes
Last 7: Lindholm 6-1 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Lindholm
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
5
0
Lindholm
Hayes
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
1
0
Lindholm
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (766)
31.9% (91)
+22.9%
Power Play
62.3% (175)
64.3% (14)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (92)
0.0% (1)
+52.2%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Lindholm is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Lindholm shoots right. Hayes is 31.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Hayes
Home
56.6% (578)
30.6% (49)
Away
54.9% (455)
40.4% (57)
By Period
Lindholm
Hayes
P1
55.2%
22.9%
P2
56.3%
40.0%
P3
56.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
54.8%
30.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 09:55 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 12:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 09:04 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |