Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lindholm wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.3% vs Sturm 53.6% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 83.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 62.7%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 60.4%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 74.3%
74.3%
25.7%
Lindholm
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lindholm
Sturm
Last 5: Lindholm 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Lindholm
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (766)
54.6% (271)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (92)
54.4% (90)
-2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Lindholm is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Lindholm shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Sturm
Home
56.6% (578)
53.0% (168)
Away
54.9% (455)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Lindholm
Sturm
P1
55.2%
58.2%
P2
56.3%
53.2%
P3
56.3%
52.3%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:20 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |