Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Haula on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Haula 49.7% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.0%
Defensive zone
Haula 69.3%
Neutral zone
Haula 54.6%
Result
Erik Haula favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Haula
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Haula
MacKinnon
Last 9: Haula 4-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Haula
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Haula
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Haula
3
2
Haula
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Haula
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (747)
49.7% (1,038)
+0.2%
Power Play
53.8% (78)
63.7% (157)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (66)
34.4% (32)
+8.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Haula is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Haula shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Haula
MacKinnon
Home
48.5% (468)
53.1% (618)
Away
51.1% (423)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Haula
MacKinnon
P1
52.5%
49.3%
P2
51.1%
53.0%
P3
45.9%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Haula
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.7%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 11:16 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Erik Haula |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Neutral | Erik Haula |