Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Duchene 51.8% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 76.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 52.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 54.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Rodrigues
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Rodrigues
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
51.1% (366)
-3.3%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
61.5% (65)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
16.7% (6)
+20.1%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Duchene
Home
47.9% (445)
51.7% (201)
Away
45.4% (346)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Rodrigues
Duchene
P1
48.3%
49.0%
P2
47.0%
57.1%
P3
44.8%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:24 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |