Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Bourque 46.5% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 51.5%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 50.8%
Neutral zone
Bourque 51.5%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Rodrigues
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Rodrigues
Bourque
Last 6: Rodrigues 2-4 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
2
Rodrigues
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Rodrigues
Bourque
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
46.8% (186)
+1.0%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
23.5% (17)
+23.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
42.9% (7)
-6.1%
On power play, Rodrigues has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Rodrigues shoots right. Bourque is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Bourque
Home
47.9% (445)
41.5% (106)
Away
45.4% (346)
48.1% (104)
By Period
Rodrigues
Bourque
P1
48.3%
40.6%
P2
47.0%
39.0%
P3
44.8%
51.7%
Final 5 min
50.3%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:19 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:10 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |