Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 73.1%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 75.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 73.7%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
3
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
53.3% (807)
-5.5%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
47.6% (42)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
46.3% (147)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Rodrigues shoots right. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
Home
47.9% (445)
49.8% (466)
Away
45.4% (346)
54.0% (530)
By Period
Rodrigues
Zibanejad
P1
48.3%
52.9%
P2
47.0%
51.2%
P3
44.8%
51.7%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:21 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 11:04 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |