Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Dowd 48.6% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 82.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 74.7%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 55.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Rodrigues
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Rodrigues
Dowd
Last 10: Rodrigues 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
0
Rodrigues
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
Rodrigues
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Rodrigues
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
51.0% (671)
-3.2%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
0.0% (2)
+47.2%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
41.5% (224)
-4.7%
On power play, Rodrigues has a +47.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Rodrigues shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Dowd
Home
47.9% (445)
48.2% (471)
Away
45.4% (346)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Rodrigues
Dowd
P1
48.3%
48.3%
P2
47.0%
46.8%
P3
44.8%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:44 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:20 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:48 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |