Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Rodrigues wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 15-9 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 94.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 64.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 73.6%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Rodrigues
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
15
(24 meetings)
9
15
Rodrigues
Dowd
Last 10: Rodrigues 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
5
1
Rodrigues
Dowd
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
6
Rodrigues
Dowd
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
8
Rodrigues
Dowd
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,897)
52.3% (6,036)
-6.1%
Power Play
44.8% (299)
56.1% (164)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (220)
44.1% (1,638)
-1.4%
On power play, Dowd has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Rodrigues is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (980).
Rodrigues shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Dowd
Home
47.1% (1,836)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Rodrigues
Dowd
P1
46.9%
51.5%
P2
46.1%
50.4%
P3
44.4%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
45.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:44 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:20 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:48 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:40 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:29 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:12 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 01:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2021 | 2 | 05:45 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 3 | 19:04 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2019 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |