Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Sturm 53.6% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 52.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 88.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.3%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
Rodrigues
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Rodrigues
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
54.6% (271)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
54.4% (90)
-17.6%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Sturm
Home
47.9% (445)
53.0% (168)
Away
45.4% (346)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Rodrigues
Sturm
P1
48.3%
58.2%
P2
47.0%
53.2%
P3
44.8%
52.3%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 03:29 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |