Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Zacha 51.8% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 60.2%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 53.9%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 59.5%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Rodrigues
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Rodrigues
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Rodrigues
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
53.0% (700)
-5.2%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
54.1% (109)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
39.2% (74)
-2.4%
On power play, Zacha has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Zacha is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Zacha
Home
47.9% (445)
51.6% (438)
Away
45.4% (346)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Rodrigues
Zacha
P1
48.3%
57.0%
P2
47.0%
48.9%
P3
44.8%
50.5%
OT
50.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
50.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:58 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |