Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.8% vs 45.9%). Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Nazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Nazar 46.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 70.2%
Defensive zone
Nazar 64.6%
Neutral zone
Nazar 52.2%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Malkin
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Malkin
Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
1
Malkin
Nazar
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Nazar
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
0
2
Malkin
Nazar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
46.3% (907)
-0.7%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
48.1% (183)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
35.6% (73)
-3.4%
On penalty kill, Nazar has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Nazar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Malkin
Nazar
Home
47.6% (5,395)
44.2% (536)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
47.4% (627)
By Period
Malkin
Nazar
P1
45.9%
47.7%
P2
46.2%
42.2%
P3
45.2%
47.1%
OT
49.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.0%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |