Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +17.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.0% vs Tavares 59.8% (-17.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 53.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 51.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Malkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Malkin
Tavares
Last 7: Malkin 3-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Malkin
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Malkin
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (366)
60.9% (1,043)
-16.9%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
60.4% (278)
-30.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Malkin is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Malkin shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Home / Away
Malkin
Tavares
Home
45.5% (202)
63.5% (684)
Away
41.4% (174)
57.6% (658)
By Period
Malkin
Tavares
P1
48.4%
60.3%
P2
41.7%
60.4%
P3
40.4%
60.1%
OT
50.0%
92.3%
Final 5 min
42.7%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.6%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:21 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 06:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:51 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |