Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.5% vs 45.0%). Malkin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs Cates 45.5% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 58.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 60.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Malkin
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Malkin
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Malkin
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (219)
45.5% (756)
+0.2%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
42.1% (114)
-7.5%
On power play, Cates has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Malkin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Malkin shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Malkin
Cates
Home
50.4% (113)
46.2% (468)
Away
39.4% (132)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Malkin
Cates
P1
47.7%
46.0%
P2
44.9%
47.5%
P3
40.0%
42.1%
OT
100.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
35.3%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 11:38 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |