Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.3% vs 44.5%). Malkin wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.8% vs Cates 45.2% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 59.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 55.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Malkin
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Malkin
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Malkin
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (211)
44.2% (566)
+0.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
44.0% (84)
+56.0%
On power play, Malkin has a +56.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Malkin is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (157).
Malkin shoots left. Cates is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Malkin
Cates
Home
51.5% (103)
45.1% (350)
Away
39.4% (109)
43.8% (338)
By Period
Malkin
Cates
P1
47.9%
46.8%
P2
47.7%
46.5%
P3
40.0%
40.8%
OT
100.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
34.1%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
45.3%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 11:38 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |