Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Kelly 41.4% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 82.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 85.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 62.9%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Malkin
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Malkin
Kelly
Last 5: Malkin 2-3 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Malkin
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Malkin
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,073)
41.6% (722)
+4.0%
Power Play
50.9% (643)
0.0% (3)
+50.9%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
36.5% (170)
-4.3%
On power play, Malkin has a +50.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,254).
Malkin shoots left. Kelly is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (601).
Home / Away
Malkin
Kelly
Home
47.6% (5,385)
42.2% (457)
Away
44.0% (5,413)
38.6% (438)
By Period
Malkin
Kelly
P1
45.9%
41.5%
P2
46.2%
44.9%
P3
45.2%
35.1%
OT
49.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
34.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
45.8%
Kelly
22.0%▼
37.0%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:24 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:51 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 19:14 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |