Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Malkin wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 57.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 56.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.2%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Malkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Malkin
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Malkin
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (219)
57.1% (368)
-11.4%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
55.2% (96)
-20.6%
On power play, Stamkos has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Malkin is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Malkin shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Malkin
Stamkos
Home
50.4% (113)
53.9% (230)
Away
39.4% (132)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Malkin
Stamkos
P1
47.7%
56.7%
P2
44.9%
54.1%
P3
40.0%
59.2%
OT
100.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
35.3%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |