Scouting Report
Fedor Svechkov holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Svechkov wins 40.8% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 43.2% vs Marner 43.0% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 56.8%
Defensive zone
Svechkov 51.6%
Neutral zone
Marner 51.0%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Svechkov
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Svechkov
Marner
Last 5: Svechkov 4-1 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
1
0
Svechkov
Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
3
1
Svechkov
Marner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (472)
41.4% (302)
+0.3%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
40.0% (5)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
25.0% (12)
+25.0%
On penalty kill, Svechkov has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Svechkov is 40.8% vs right-shot opponents (169).
Svechkov shoots left. Marner is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Marner
Home
39.7% (247)
36.6% (172)
Away
44.0% (234)
45.6% (147)
By Period
Svechkov
Marner
P1
36.1%
40.8%
P2
44.5%
40.5%
P3
44.1%
41.0%
Final 5 min
42.0%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
28.0%▼
38.5%
41.8%
Marner
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:15 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:01 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:39 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |