Scouting Report
Mitch Marner holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Svechkov wins 38.3% vs right-shot opponents — Marner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 40.8% vs Marner 42.7% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 63.1%
Defensive zone
Marner 63.6%
Neutral zone
Marner 60.2%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Svechkov
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Svechkov
Marner
Last 5: Svechkov 4-1 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
1
0
Svechkov
Marner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
3
1
Svechkov
Marner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
39.7% (790)
41.7% (496)
-2.0%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
55.6% (18)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
35.4% (65)
-2.1%
On power play, Marner has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Svechkov is 38.3% vs right-shot opponents (282).
Svechkov shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Marner
Home
38.6% (428)
38.0% (321)
Away
41.0% (388)
45.7% (258)
By Period
Svechkov
Marner
P1
35.7%
38.7%
P2
44.5%
41.5%
P3
39.1%
45.5%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.2%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
28.0%▼
38.5%
39.7%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:15 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:01 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:39 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |