Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Svechkov wins 40.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 40.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
Svechkov leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 96.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 97.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 97.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 96.9%
3.1%
96.9%
Svechkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Svechkov
Hertl
Last 9: Svechkov 7-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
2
0
Svechkov
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Svechkov
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Svechkov
6
0
Svechkov
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
39.7% (790)
53.9% (8,303)
-14.2%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
59.2% (1,995)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
46.3% (806)
-13.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Svechkov is 40.4% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Svechkov shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Hertl
Home
38.6% (428)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
41.0% (388)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Svechkov
Hertl
P1
35.7%
53.6%
P2
44.5%
54.2%
P3
39.1%
55.3%
OT
100.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
39.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
28.0%▼
38.5%
39.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:10 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 05:52 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 03:05 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |