Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nazar wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs Tavares 57.8% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 80.4%
Defensive zone
Nazar 75.4%
Neutral zone
Nazar 84.5%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
Nazar
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nazar
Tavares
Last 9: Nazar 2-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
4
Nazar
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Nazar
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Nazar
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (393)
59.0% (691)
-12.2%
Power Play
49.4% (81)
57.2% (173)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (30)
63.6% (11)
-46.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +46.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nazar is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (376).
Nazar shoots right. Tavares is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Nazar
Tavares
Home
45.7% (243)
58.0% (500)
Away
45.2% (261)
59.7% (375)
By Period
Nazar
Tavares
P1
47.0%
59.5%
P2
42.9%
58.5%
P3
45.3%
58.2%
OT
66.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
46.0%▼
47.5%
45.4%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |