Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nazar wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Tavares 56.8% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 72.4%
Defensive zone
Nazar 67.1%
Neutral zone
Nazar 72.3%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Nazar
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nazar
Tavares
Last 9: Nazar 2-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
4
Nazar
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Nazar
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Nazar
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
57.7% (975)
-10.5%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
56.0% (250)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
52.2% (23)
-22.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Nazar shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Nazar
Tavares
Home
45.0% (329)
57.4% (636)
Away
48.5% (431)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Nazar
Tavares
P1
47.8%
57.5%
P2
43.4%
56.9%
P3
48.4%
57.5%
OT
75.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
45.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |