Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +15.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs Toews 59.8% (-15.8%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 88.7%
Defensive zone
Nazar 81.3%
Neutral zone
Nazar 86.9%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Nazar
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Nazar
Toews
Last 10: Nazar 2-8 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Nazar
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
4
Nazar
Toews
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
4
Nazar
Toews
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (393)
63.4% (555)
-16.6%
Power Play
49.4% (81)
54.1% (109)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (30)
46.7% (30)
-30.0%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nazar is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (376).
Nazar shoots right. Toews is 70.2% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Nazar
Toews
Home
45.7% (243)
59.6% (329)
Away
45.2% (261)
62.7% (365)
By Period
Nazar
Toews
P1
47.0%
62.2%
P2
42.9%
64.7%
P3
45.3%
56.8%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
46.0%▼
47.5%
45.4%
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
61.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |