Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nazar wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Staal 54.6% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 61.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 83.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 67.6%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
Nazar
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Nazar
Staal
Last 8: Nazar 5-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Nazar
Staal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nazar
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
4
1
Nazar
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
56.2% (989)
-9.0%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
66.0% (159)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
42.7% (253)
-12.5%
On power play, Staal has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Nazar shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Home / Away
Nazar
Staal
Home
45.0% (329)
55.4% (699)
Away
48.5% (431)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Nazar
Staal
P1
47.8%
55.7%
P2
43.4%
54.7%
P3
48.4%
53.4%
OT
75.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |