Scouting Report
Frank Nazar holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 77.1%
Defensive zone
Nazar 77.3%
Neutral zone
Nazar 77.2%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 77.1%
77.1%
22.9%
Nazar
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Nazar
Carlsson
Last 6: Nazar 5-1 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
1
Nazar
Carlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Carlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
45.0% (695)
+2.2%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
46.4% (84)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
32.9% (85)
-2.7%
On power play, Nazar has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Nazar shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Nazar
Carlsson
Home
45.0% (329)
42.5% (435)
Away
48.5% (431)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Nazar
Carlsson
P1
47.8%
45.3%
P2
43.4%
38.7%
P3
48.4%
48.5%
OT
75.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
45.1%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 17:36 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 08:52 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |