Scouting Report
Frank Nazar holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs Carlsson 41.1% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 83.3%
Defensive zone
Nazar 85.2%
Neutral zone
Nazar 85.2%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Nazar
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Nazar
Carlsson
Last 6: Nazar 5-1 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
1
Nazar
Carlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Carlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (907)
40.9% (1,878)
+5.4%
Power Play
48.1% (183)
42.9% (156)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (73)
34.7% (121)
+0.9%
On even strength, Nazar has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Nazar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Nazar shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Home / Away
Nazar
Carlsson
Home
44.2% (536)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
47.4% (627)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Nazar
Carlsson
P1
47.7%
43.3%
P2
42.2%
36.2%
P3
47.1%
43.3%
OT
66.7%
40.7%
Final 5 min
46.0%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 17:36 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 08:52 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |