Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.9% vs 46.8%). Look for Nazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs Scheifele 46.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 65.7%
Defensive zone
Nazar 61.8%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 50.7%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Nazar
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nazar
Scheifele
Last 5: Nazar 4-1 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nazar
Scheifele
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
Scheifele
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (907)
46.3% (12,077)
+0.0%
Power Play
48.1% (183)
50.2% (2,576)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (73)
41.6% (598)
-6.0%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Nazar is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nazar shoots right. Scheifele is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,390).
Home / Away
Nazar
Scheifele
Home
44.2% (536)
48.9% (7,678)
Away
47.4% (627)
44.7% (7,574)
By Period
Nazar
Scheifele
P1
47.7%
48.2%
P2
42.2%
45.6%
P3
47.1%
46.8%
OT
66.7%
42.5%
Final 5 min
46.0%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:59 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:21 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |