Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs Backlund 49.0% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 68.2%
Defensive zone
Nazar 51.7%
Neutral zone
Nazar 62.2%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 57.0%
57.0%
43.0%
Nazar
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nazar
Backlund
Last 7: Nazar 2-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Backlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Nazar
Backlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Nazar
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (907)
49.7% (13,463)
-3.4%
Power Play
48.1% (183)
51.5% (1,338)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (73)
43.9% (2,465)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nazar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Nazar shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,251).
Home / Away
Nazar
Backlund
Home
44.2% (536)
49.7% (8,621)
Away
47.4% (627)
48.3% (8,650)
By Period
Nazar
Backlund
P1
47.7%
48.5%
P2
42.2%
50.3%
P3
47.1%
48.4%
OT
66.7%
45.1%
Final 5 min
46.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:04 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:17 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:50 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |