Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.6% vs 44.6%). Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Cates 45.1% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 57.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 67.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Nazar
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nazar
Cates
Last 5: Nazar 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Nazar
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Nazar
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (314)
46.7% (912)
-1.5%
Power Play
39.5% (38)
33.9% (56)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
35.0% (137)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, Nazar has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Nazar is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Nazar shoots right. Cates is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Nazar
Cates
Home
43.4% (196)
46.1% (521)
Away
45.9% (185)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Nazar
Cates
P1
47.3%
48.0%
P2
40.3%
42.3%
P3
46.7%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
31.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
44.6%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:03 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |