Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.8% vs Guentzel 48.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 65.8%
Defensive zone
Minten 68.4%
Neutral zone
Minten 50.6%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Minten
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Minten
Guentzel
Last 5: Minten 3-2 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Minten
1
0
Minten
Guentzel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (651)
49.1% (230)
+0.5%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
44.9% (118)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (45)
46.2% (26)
-10.6%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Minten is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Minten shoots left. Guentzel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Minten
Guentzel
Home
52.4% (349)
50.2% (205)
Away
45.3% (397)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Minten
Guentzel
P1
45.4%
47.6%
P2
47.1%
49.0%
P3
52.3%
46.2%
OT
83.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
46.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.7%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |