Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.3% vs Guentzel 46.7% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 74.3%
Defensive zone
Minten 78.8%
Neutral zone
Minten 50.9%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Minten
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Minten
Guentzel
Last 6: Minten 3-3 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (841)
46.4% (715)
+2.5%
Power Play
47.5% (61)
46.6% (298)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (49)
43.2% (44)
-6.5%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Minten is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (624).
Minten shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Home / Away
Minten
Guentzel
Home
51.9% (476)
48.9% (583)
Away
44.4% (475)
43.2% (474)
By Period
Minten
Guentzel
P1
44.4%
48.0%
P2
46.8%
45.5%
P3
52.3%
46.0%
OT
83.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.7%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 06:13 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |