Fraser Minten vs Justin Sourdif
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Minten wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.3% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 58.3%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 68.2%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 58.6%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Minten
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Minten
Sourdif
Last 6: Minten 2-4 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
1
Minten
Sourdif
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
2
3
Minten
Sourdif
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (841)
44.3% (585)
+4.6%
Power Play
47.5% (61)
50.0% (24)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (49)
61.5% (13)
-24.8%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Minten is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Minten shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Minten
Sourdif
Home
51.9% (476)
43.6% (321)
Away
44.4% (475)
46.2% (301)
By Period
Minten
Sourdif
P1
44.4%
41.9%
P2
46.8%
44.3%
P3
52.3%
47.9%
OT
83.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
44.7%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 04:28 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |