Fraser Minten vs Mikael Backlund
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.2% vs 49.0%). Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.3% vs Backlund 49.0% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Minten 72.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 56.9%
Neutral zone
Minten 55.6%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Minten
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Minten
Backlund
Last 7: Minten 2-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Minten
2
0
Minten
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
5
Minten
Backlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (841)
49.7% (13,463)
-0.8%
Power Play
47.5% (61)
51.5% (1,338)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (49)
43.9% (2,465)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Minten is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (624).
Minten shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,020).
Home / Away
Minten
Backlund
Home
51.9% (476)
49.7% (8,621)
Away
44.4% (475)
48.3% (8,650)
By Period
Minten
Backlund
P1
44.4%
48.5%
P2
46.8%
50.3%
P3
52.3%
48.4%
OT
83.3%
45.1%
Final 5 min
44.7%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:38 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |