Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.8% vs Novak 42.6% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 79.9%
Defensive zone
Novak 64.0%
Neutral zone
Novak 67.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 67.3%
32.7%
67.3%
Minten
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Minten
Novak
Last 8: Minten 3-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Minten
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
3
1
Minten
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Minten
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (651)
40.5% (405)
+9.1%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
45.5% (33)
+2.5%
On even strength, Minten has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Minten is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Minten shoots left. Novak is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Minten
Novak
Home
52.4% (349)
42.0% (212)
Away
45.3% (397)
39.8% (226)
By Period
Minten
Novak
P1
45.4%
41.7%
P2
47.1%
39.5%
P3
52.3%
42.1%
OT
83.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.7%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:48 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |