Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.3% vs Novak 43.0% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 81.2%
Defensive zone
Novak 56.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 68.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Minten
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Minten
Novak
Last 8: Minten 3-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Minten
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
3
1
Minten
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Minten
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (841)
41.8% (1,568)
+7.1%
Power Play
47.5% (61)
51.5% (134)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (49)
50.0% (2)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Minten is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (624).
Minten shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Minten
Novak
Home
51.9% (476)
45.1% (831)
Away
44.4% (475)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Minten
Novak
P1
44.4%
43.7%
P2
46.8%
42.8%
P3
52.3%
41.1%
OT
83.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
44.7%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:48 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |