Frederick Gaudreau vs Mavrik Bourque
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Bourque 46.5% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 65.3%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 78.0%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 52.0%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Gaudreau
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Gaudreau
Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
1
Gaudreau
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (414)
46.8% (186)
-1.9%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
23.5% (17)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (129)
42.9% (7)
-4.9%
On power play, Gaudreau has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Gaudreau shoots right. Bourque is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Bourque
Home
42.6% (277)
41.5% (106)
Away
43.1% (288)
48.1% (104)
By Period
Gaudreau
Bourque
P1
44.1%
40.6%
P2
44.7%
39.0%
P3
39.5%
51.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |