Frederick Gaudreau vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 96.9%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 50.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 86.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
2
0
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (414)
49.7% (1,038)
-4.8%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
63.7% (157)
-31.9%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (129)
34.4% (32)
+3.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +31.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Gaudreau shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Home
42.6% (277)
53.1% (618)
Away
43.1% (288)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
P1
44.1%
49.3%
P2
44.7%
53.0%
P3
39.5%
50.7%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:55 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |