Frederick Gaudreau vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaudreau wins 42.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 44.1% vs O'Reilly 54.7% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.8%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 89.9%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 77.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Gaudreau
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Gaudreau
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Gaudreau
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (315)
54.6% (669)
-8.6%
Power Play
33.3% (12)
57.3% (171)
-24.0%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (85)
56.3% (87)
-24.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.2% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Gaudreau shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (397).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
O'Reilly
Home
42.9% (217)
56.4% (486)
Away
42.6% (195)
54.0% (441)
By Period
Gaudreau
O'Reilly
P1
44.2%
55.3%
P2
44.4%
53.4%
P3
39.4%
56.9%
Final 5 min
49.2%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
42.0%▼
47.5%
42.7%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |