Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Steel 50.6% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 58.1%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 83.0%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 57.0%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Gaudreau
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Gaudreau
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Gaudreau
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (414)
52.5% (200)
-7.6%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
71.4% (7)
-39.6%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (129)
40.0% (45)
-2.0%
On power play, Steel has a +39.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Gaudreau shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Steel
Home
42.6% (277)
49.5% (109)
Away
43.1% (288)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Gaudreau
Steel
P1
44.1%
49.5%
P2
44.7%
47.5%
P3
39.5%
56.6%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Sam Steel |