Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Smith wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 47.7% vs Lorentz 48.5% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Lorentz 51.0%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 60.1%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 53.7%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Smith
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Smith
Lorentz
Last 10: Smith 4-6 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
2
Smith
Lorentz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
1
Smith
Lorentz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
2
3
Smith
Lorentz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (212)
48.9% (1,125)
-0.3%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
50.0% (26)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
9.1% (11)
41.8% (91)
-32.7%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +32.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Smith is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (155).
Smith shoots left. Lorentz is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Smith
Lorentz
Home
43.0% (114)
50.6% (609)
Away
50.4% (113)
46.3% (633)
By Period
Smith
Lorentz
P1
45.6%
53.0%
P2
49.4%
46.7%
P3
45.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
40.4%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.7%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 14:23 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 02:59 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 17:41 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 02:23 | Offensive | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 06:27 | Offensive | Gemel Smith |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | Gemel Smith |