Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.1% vs 49.2%). Look for McKegg on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McKegg wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 49.2% vs Zacha 49.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 69.8%
Defensive zone
McKegg 53.4%
Neutral zone
Zacha 54.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
McKegg
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McKegg
Zacha
Last 7: McKegg 4-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
3
McKegg
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
3
0
McKegg
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (1,143)
48.9% (5,156)
+0.2%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
55.7% (813)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (86)
42.2% (557)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, McKegg has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. McKegg is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (782).
McKegg shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,965).
Home / Away
McKegg
Zacha
Home
50.4% (554)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
48.1% (699)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
McKegg
Zacha
P1
48.7%
49.9%
P2
49.9%
49.2%
P3
48.6%
48.2%
Final 5 min
49.0%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.1%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 13:44 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 03:56 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 1 | 03:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 3 | 11:59 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 3 | 02:18 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |