Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Lapierre wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lapierre 43.4% vs Frost 56.4% (-16.1%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 61.8%
Defensive zone
Lapierre 74.7%
Neutral zone
Lapierre 56.7%
Result
Hendrix Lapierre favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Lapierre
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Lapierre
Frost
Last 10: Lapierre 4-6 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Lapierre
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lapierre
4
1
Lapierre
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
5
Lapierre
Frost
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lapierre
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (264)
56.0% (755)
-15.1%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
60.1% (173)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
88.9% (9)
-88.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +88.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Lapierre is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (182).
Lapierre shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Lapierre
Frost
Home
44.2% (138)
57.3% (497)
Away
37.6% (133)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Lapierre
Frost
P1
55.2%
60.2%
P2
40.6%
56.0%
P3
26.5%
54.8%
Final 5 min
35.3%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lapierre
50.0%▲
41.0%
41.0%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 11:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 3 | 11:15 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 09:47 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 09:30 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 12:08 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 09:13 | Neutral | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 09:36 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Hendrix Lapierre |