Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Borgstrom wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Borgstrom 42.0% vs Gagner 46.0% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Borgstrom 69.1%
Defensive zone
Borgstrom 72.7%
Neutral zone
Borgstrom 69.3%
Result
Henrik Borgstrom favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Borgstrom
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Borgstrom
Gagner
Last 7: Borgstrom 1-6 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
3
Borgstrom
Gagner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Borgstrom
1
0
Borgstrom
Gagner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
3
Borgstrom
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Borgstrom
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (640)
45.4% (4,699)
-4.3%
Power Play
37.0% (27)
51.5% (928)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
35.0% (226)
-1.7%
On power play, Gagner has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Borgstrom is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Borgstrom shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Borgstrom
Gagner
Home
42.4% (309)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
39.6% (364)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Borgstrom
Gagner
P1
44.9%
44.6%
P2
36.0%
46.1%
P3
42.6%
47.3%
OT
0.0%
42.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Borgstrom
46.0%▲
40.0%
40.9%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | Henrik Borgstrom |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 18:17 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 12:05 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 16:49 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 06:24 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |