Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lundeström on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lundeström wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundeström 52.0% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.4%
Defensive zone
Lundeström 68.1%
Neutral zone
Lundeström 56.6%
Result
Isac Lundeström favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Lundeström
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lundeström
O'Reilly
Last 5: Lundeström 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Lundeström
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundeström
2
1
Lundeström
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundeström
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (214)
55.7% (856)
-2.4%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
57.5% (233)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (26)
50.0% (144)
+0.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lundeström is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (151).
Lundeström shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Lundeström
O'Reilly
Home
49.6% (139)
55.5% (616)
Away
57.1% (105)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Lundeström
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
58.1%
P2
53.5%
54.9%
P3
51.9%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundeström
48.0%▼
52.5%
52.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:05 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 05:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |