Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Compher 51.3% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 80.5%
Defensive zone
Compher 62.1%
Neutral zone
Mercer 62.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Mercer
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mercer
Compher
Last 6: Mercer 2-4 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Compher
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
0
2
Mercer
Compher
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
0
1
Mercer
Compher
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
53.1% (784)
-14.3%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
54.8% (31)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
36.8% (95)
+17.7%
On power play, Compher has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Mercer is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Mercer shoots right. Compher is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Mercer
Compher
Home
35.2% (145)
51.3% (452)
Away
43.2% (146)
51.5% (458)
By Period
Mercer
Compher
P1
32.7%
54.9%
P2
42.7%
49.0%
P3
42.9%
50.6%
Final 5 min
39.2%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Compher
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:12 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |