Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 52.2%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 51.3% vs Duchene 51.8% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.2%
Defensive zone
Compher 69.7%
Neutral zone
Compher 61.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Compher
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Compher
Duchene
Last 10: Compher 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
4
Compher
Duchene
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
3
1
Compher
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
1
0
Compher
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (784)
51.1% (366)
+2.0%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
61.5% (65)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (95)
16.7% (6)
+20.1%
On penalty kill, Compher has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Compher is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Compher shoots right. Duchene is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Compher
Duchene
Home
51.3% (452)
51.7% (201)
Away
51.5% (458)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Compher
Duchene
P1
54.9%
49.0%
P2
49.0%
57.1%
P3
50.6%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.4%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:07 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 03:35 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |