Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Matthews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 58.8% vs Miller 60.3% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 55.8%
Defensive zone
Matthews 53.9%
Neutral zone
Miller 51.1%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Matthews
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Matthews
Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Matthews
Miller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Miller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
0
1
Matthews
Miller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (848)
62.0% (582)
-2.2%
Power Play
64.9% (37)
65.9% (126)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
50.7% (71)
+5.6%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Matthews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Matthews shoots left. Miller is 62.3% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
Matthews
Miller
Home
60.0% (520)
63.0% (416)
Away
59.3% (452)
60.1% (363)
By Period
Matthews
Miller
P1
60.2%
60.7%
P2
58.2%
63.9%
P3
60.4%
60.2%
OT
70.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
64.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
59.7%
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:22 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |